Lhasa Limited shared knowledge shared progress

Assessing confidence in predictions made by knowledge-based systems

Judson PN; Stalford SA; Vessey J;

A new metric, “veracity”, is proposed for assessing the performance of qualitative, reasoning-based prediction systems that takes into account the ability of these systems to express levels of confidence in their predictions. Veracity is shown to be compatible with concordance and it is hoped that it will provide a useful alternative to concordance and other Cooper statistics for the assessment of reasoning-based systems and for comparing them with other types of prediction system. A few datasets for four endpoints covered by the program, Derek for Windows, have been used to illustrate calculations of veracity. The levels of confidence expressed by Derek for Windows in these examples are shown to carry meaningful information. The approach provides a way of judging how well open predictions (“nothing to report” in Derek for Windows) can support qualified predictions of inactivity.

Visit site

Related Publications

© 2017 Lhasa Limited | Registered office: Granary Wharf House, 2 Canal Wharf, Leeds, LS11 5PS, UK Tel: +44 (0)113 394 6020
VAT number 396 8737 77 | Lhasa Limited is registered as a charity (290866)| Company Registration Number 01765239 (England and Wales).

QuestionPro supports sample survey questions such as multiple choice, drop-down menu, likert-scale, semantic differential, matrix, constant sum, drag-and-drop, slider-scale, net-promoter scale, and many more question types.